Predictions / Football / Sweden. Svenska Cupen / Sollentuna vs Orebro SK

Prediction Audit: Sollentuna vs Orebro SK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sollentuna Sollentuna
Aug 18, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Orebro SK Orebro SK

The model missed the final outcome (Orebro SK win 1–4).

The model had projected Sollentuna at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sollentuna Orebro SK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Orebro SK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Orebro SK -21.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sollentuna 36.1% 19.8% +16.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.3% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Orebro SK 34.2% 55.9% -21.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Orebro SK's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 21.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Orebro SK win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sollentuna; match finished Orebro SK

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sollentuna by 21.7 percentage points (57.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sollentuna 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Orebro SK 34.2%
    • xG · Sollentuna 1.32 — Orebro SK 1.28
  2. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sollentuna 4.59 · Draw 3.71 · Orebro SK 1.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Sollentuna 19.3% · Draw 23.9% · Orebro SK 56.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sollentuna 4.54 · Draw 3.71 · Orebro SK 1.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Sollentuna 19.8% · Draw 24.3% · Orebro SK 55.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Orebro SK win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3728270

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Orebro SK win · Sollentuna 1–4 Orebro SK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Svenska Cupen
  • Fixture: Sollentuna vs Orebro SK
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-18 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sollentuna 1.32 — Orebro SK 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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