The model missed the final outcome (Yarmouk win 2–3).
The model had projected Al Sahel at 36.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Al Sahel Yarmouk ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Sahel | 36.0% | 30.4% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 29.8% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Yarmouk | 34.9% | 39.8% | -4.9 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Al Sahel's win probability at 36.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.4%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Yarmouk win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Al Sahel.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.80) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Al Sahel; match finished Yarmouk
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Sahel by 5.6 percentage points (30.4% vs model 36.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Sahel 36.1% · Draw 29.1% · Yarmouk 34.8%
- xG · Al Sahel 1.43 — Yarmouk 1.37
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 16:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Sahel 2.64 · Draw 2.93 · Yarmouk 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · Al Sahel 33.7% · Draw 30.3% · Yarmouk 36.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 17:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Sahel 2.96 · Draw 3.02 · Yarmouk 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · Al Sahel 30.4% · Draw 29.8% · Yarmouk 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 17:10 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Yarmouk win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sulaibikhat | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 2 | Al Sahel | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 3 | Yarmouk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 4 | Al Jazira | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 |
| 5 | Khaitan | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 27 |
| 6 | Burgan | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Shamiya | 21 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporty | 21 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yarmouk | 21 | 42 | 20 | +22 | 43 |
| 2 | Al Jazira | 21 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 38 |
| 3 | Al Sulaibikhat | 21 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 44 |
| 4 | Al Sahel | 21 | 35 | 16 | +19 | 44 |
| 5 | Burgan | 21 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 23 |
| 6 | Khaitan | 21 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 27 |
| 7 | Shamiya | 21 | 19 | 63 | -44 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporty | 21 | 14 | 49 | -35 | 6 |
