Predictions / Football / Kuwait. Division 1 / Yarmouk vs Burgan

Prediction Audit: Yarmouk vs Burgan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yarmouk Yarmouk
Aug 11, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.43
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 59%
Burgan Burgan

AI correctly predicted the Yarmouk win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yarmouk Yarmouk ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Yarmouk higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Yarmouk -25.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yarmouk 37.8% 63.3% -25.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.5% 22.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Burgan 33.7% 14.1% +19.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Yarmouk's win probability at 63.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.8%, a difference of 25.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yarmouk win 3–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.77) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yarmouk higher (63.3% vs model 37.8%, 25.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yarmouk win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 11, 2026 · 19:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yarmouk 37.7% · Draw 28.6% · Burgan 33.7%
    • xG · Yarmouk 1.43 — Burgan 1.34
  2. Aug 11, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yarmouk 1.40 · Draw 3.93 · Burgan 6.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Yarmouk 63.3% · Draw 22.6% · Burgan 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 11, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yarmouk 1.40 · Draw 3.93 · Burgan 6.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Yarmouk 63.3% · Draw 22.6% · Burgan 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yarmouk win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2967253

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yarmouk win · Yarmouk 3–1 Burgan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Yarmouk vs Burgan
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Yarmouk 1.43 — Burgan 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.77)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Sulaibikhat 21 13 5 3 44
2 Al Sahel 21 13 5 3 44
3 Yarmouk 21 13 4 4 43
4 Al Jazira 21 11 5 5 38
5 Khaitan 21 7 6 8 27
6 Burgan 21 5 8 8 23
7 Shamiya 21 3 1 17 10
8 Sporty 21 2 0 19 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yarmouk 21 42 20 +22 43
2 Al Jazira 21 41 24 +17 38
3 Al Sulaibikhat 21 38 16 +22 44
4 Al Sahel 21 35 16 +19 44
5 Burgan 21 26 30 -4 23
6 Khaitan 21 23 20 +3 27
7 Shamiya 21 19 63 -44 10
8 Sporty 21 14 49 -35 6