Predictions / Football / Kuwait. Division 1 / Yarmouk vs Khaitan

Prediction Audit: Yarmouk vs Khaitan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yarmouk Yarmouk
Aug 07, 2026 - 17:45
0 1.45
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 46%
Khaitan Khaitan

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Yarmouk at 40.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Yarmouk Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Khaitan considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Khaitan +6.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yarmouk 40.5% 47.3% -6.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.2% 28.2% -0.0 pp Aligned
Khaitan 31.3% 24.5% +6.8 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Khaitan's win probability at 31.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.5%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Khaitan.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Yarmouk by 6.8 percentage points (33.7% vs model 40.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 19:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yarmouk 40.5% · Draw 28.2% · Khaitan 31.4%
    • xG · Yarmouk 1.45 — Khaitan 1.39
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yarmouk 1.88 · Draw 3.15 · Khaitan 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Yarmouk 47.3% · Draw 28.2% · Khaitan 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yarmouk 1.88 · Draw 3.15 · Khaitan 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Yarmouk 47.3% · Draw 28.2% · Khaitan 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 65/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2558562

Closing Odds 3.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Yarmouk 0–0 Khaitan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Yarmouk vs Khaitan
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 28.2% · Away 31.4%
  • xG (showing): Yarmouk 1.45 — Khaitan 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.84)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.0% · Over 2.5 54.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Sulaibikhat 21 13 5 3 44
2 Al Sahel 21 13 5 3 44
3 Yarmouk 21 13 4 4 43
4 Al Jazira 21 11 5 5 38
5 Khaitan 21 7 6 8 27
6 Burgan 21 5 8 8 23
7 Shamiya 21 3 1 17 10
8 Sporty 21 2 0 19 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yarmouk 21 42 20 +22 43
2 Al Jazira 21 41 24 +17 38
3 Al Sulaibikhat 21 38 16 +22 44
4 Al Sahel 21 35 16 +19 44
5 Burgan 21 26 30 -4 23
6 Khaitan 21 23 20 +3 27
7 Shamiya 21 19 63 -44 10
8 Sporty 21 14 49 -35 6