AI correctly predicted the Al Jazira win.
The match finished 0–5, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Jazira Al Jazira ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamiya | 31.4% | 47.5% | -16.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.3% | 24.6% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Al Jazira | 41.3% | 28.0% | +13.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Shamiya's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.4%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al Jazira win 0–5).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Shamiya than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.84) — 5 goals materialised
- Al Jazira attacking xG significantly stronger (1.67 vs 1.17)
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Jazira higher (57.3% vs model 41.3%, 16.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Jazira win 0–5).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 06, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shamiya 31.4% · Draw 27.3% · Al Jazira 41.3%
- xG · Shamiya 1.17 — Al Jazira 1.67
-
Aug 06, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shamiya 1.93 · Draw 3.73 · Al Jazira 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · Shamiya 47.5% · Draw 24.6% · Al Jazira 28.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 06, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shamiya 1.93 · Draw 3.73 · Al Jazira 3.27
- Implied 1X2 · Shamiya 47.5% · Draw 24.6% · Al Jazira 28.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 06, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Jazira win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sulaibikhat | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 2 | Al Sahel | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 3 | Yarmouk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 4 | Al Jazira | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 |
| 5 | Khaitan | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 27 |
| 6 | Burgan | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Shamiya | 21 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporty | 21 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yarmouk | 21 | 42 | 20 | +22 | 43 |
| 2 | Al Jazira | 21 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 38 |
| 3 | Al Sulaibikhat | 21 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 44 |
| 4 | Al Sahel | 21 | 35 | 16 | +19 | 44 |
| 5 | Burgan | 21 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 23 |
| 6 | Khaitan | 21 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 27 |
| 7 | Shamiya | 21 | 19 | 63 | -44 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporty | 21 | 14 | 49 | -35 | 6 |
