Predictions / Football / Ireland. FAI Cup / Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers

Prediction Audit: Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Finn Harps Finn Harps
Jul 17, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Bray Wanderers Bray Wanderers

AI correctly predicted the Bray Wanderers win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bray Wanderers Bray Wanderers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Bray Wanderers higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bray Wanderers -7.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Finn Harps 33.0% 28.4% +4.5 pp Aligned
Draw 28.6% 26.0% +2.6 pp Aligned
Bray Wanderers 38.4% 45.5% -7.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bray Wanderers's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.4%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bray Wanderers win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bray Wanderers. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bray Wanderers higher (45.6% vs model 38.4%, 7.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bray Wanderers win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Finn Harps 33.0% · Draw 28.6% · Bray Wanderers 38.4%
    • xG · Finn Harps 1.30 — Bray Wanderers 1.30
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Finn Harps 3.22 · Draw 3.52 · Bray Wanderers 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Finn Harps 28.4% · Draw 26.0% · Bray Wanderers 45.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Finn Harps 3.22 · Draw 3.52 · Bray Wanderers 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Finn Harps 28.4% · Draw 26.0% · Bray Wanderers 45.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bray Wanderers win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1538242

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bray Wanderers win · Finn Harps 0–1 Bray Wanderers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FAI Cup
  • Fixture: Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 28.6% · Away 38.4%
  • xG (showing): Finn Harps 1.3 — Bray Wanderers 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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