Prediction Audit: Derry City vs Tolka Rovers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Derry City

Jul 19, 2026 - 15:00

3 1.44

0 1.16

xG Accuracy: 47%

Tolka Rovers

AI correctly predicted the Derry City win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Derry City Derry City ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Derry City	58.9%	87.1%	-28.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	23.2%	8.5%	+14.7 pp	Model Edge
Tolka Rovers	17.9%	4.4%	+13.6 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Derry City's win probability at 87.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 58.9%, a difference of 28.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Derry City win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Derry City higher (87.2% vs model 58.9%, 28.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Derry City win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Derry City 58.9% · Draw 23.2% · Tolka Rovers 17.9%
- xG · Derry City 1.44 — Tolka Rovers 1.16
Jul 19, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.04 · Draw 10.66 · Tolka Rovers 20.81
- Implied 1X2 · Derry City 87.1% · Draw 8.5% · Tolka Rovers 4.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.04 · Draw 10.66 · Tolka Rovers 20.81
- Implied 1X2 · Derry City 87.1% · Draw 8.5% · Tolka Rovers 4.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Derry City win · 3–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (28 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 09:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2348720

Closing Odds 1.04

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Derry City win · Derry City 3–0 Tolka Rovers

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FAI Cup
Fixture: Derry City vs Tolka Rovers
Kickoff: 2026-07-19 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 58.9% · Draw 23.2% · Away 17.9%
xG (showing): Derry City 1.44 — Tolka Rovers 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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