The model missed the final outcome (Grimsby win 5–1).
The model had projected Lincoln at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Lincoln Grimsby ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 31.1% | 21.2% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 28.0% | 21.9% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Lincoln | 40.9% | 56.9% | -16.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Lincoln's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Grimsby win 5–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Lincoln than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Lincoln; match finished Grimsby
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lincoln by 16.0 percentage points (56.9% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 28, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Grimsby 31.0% · Draw 28.0% · Lincoln 41.0%
- xG · Grimsby 1.33 — Lincoln 1.27
-
Jul 28, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Grimsby 4.18 · Draw 4.05 · Lincoln 1.56
- Implied 1X2 · Grimsby 21.2% · Draw 21.9% · Lincoln 56.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Grimsby 4.18 · Draw 4.05 · Lincoln 1.56
- Implied 1X2 · Grimsby 21.2% · Draw 21.9% · Lincoln 56.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 28, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Grimsby win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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