Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / FK Košice vs Diosgyori VTK

Prediction Audit: FK Košice vs Diosgyori VTK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Košice FK Košice
Jul 18, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Diosgyori VTK Diosgyori VTK

The model missed the final outcome (FK Košice win 3–1).

The model had projected Diosgyori VTK at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Diosgyori VTK FK Košice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Košice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Košice -12.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Košice 34.7% 47.2% -12.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.5% +4.1 pp Aligned
Diosgyori VTK 35.6% 27.2% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates FK Košice's win probability at 47.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FK Košice win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FK Košice than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Diosgyori VTK; match finished FK Košice

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Diosgyori VTK by 12.5 percentage points (48.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 16:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Košice 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Diosgyori VTK 35.6%
    • xG · FK Košice 1.29 — Diosgyori VTK 1.31
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Košice 1.88 · Draw 3.48 · Diosgyori VTK 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Košice 47.2% · Draw 25.5% · Diosgyori VTK 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Košice 1.88 · Draw 3.48 · Diosgyori VTK 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Košice 47.2% · Draw 25.5% · Diosgyori VTK 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Košice win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 05:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3103468

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Košice win · FK Košice 3–1 Diosgyori VTK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: FK Košice vs Diósgyőri VTK
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): FK Košice 1.29 — Diósgyőri VTK 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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