Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC 08 Homburg

Prediction Audit: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC 08 Homburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98
Jul 14, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.14
1 1.46
xG Accuracy: 30%
FC 08 Homburg FC 08 Homburg

The model missed the final outcome (SV Darmstadt 98 win 5–1).

The model had projected FC 08 Homburg at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC 08 Homburg SV Darmstadt 98 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SV Darmstadt 98 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SV Darmstadt 98 -44.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Darmstadt 98 27.9% 72.5% -44.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 16.3% +12.9 pp Model Edge
FC 08 Homburg 42.9% 11.2% +31.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates SV Darmstadt 98's win probability at 72.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 44.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was SV Darmstadt 98 win 5–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned FC 08 Homburg; match finished SV Darmstadt 98

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC 08 Homburg by 44.6 percentage points (87.5% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 14, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · FC 08 Homburg 42.9%
    • xG · SV Darmstadt 98 1.14 — FC 08 Homburg 1.46
  2. Jul 14, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SV Darmstadt 98 1.19 · Draw 5.28 · FC 08 Homburg 7.73
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 72.5% · Draw 16.3% · FC 08 Homburg 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Darmstadt 98 1.19 · Draw 5.28 · FC 08 Homburg 7.73
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 72.5% · Draw 16.3% · FC 08 Homburg 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SV Darmstadt 98 win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 27/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (45 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1636356

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SV Darmstadt 98 win · SV Darmstadt 98 5–1 FC 08 Homburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FC 08 Homburg; market prices SV Darmstadt 98 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: SV Darmstadt 98 1.14 xG vs FC 08 Homburg 1.46 → FC 08 Homburg 42.9%
  • Market: SV Darmstadt 98 ~11.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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