The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected HNK Rijeka at 49.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 HNK Rijeka Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica | 20.6% | 16.0% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 30.4% | 26.2% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| HNK Rijeka | 49.0% | 57.8% | -8.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates HNK Rijeka's win probability at 57.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.0%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on HNK Rijeka. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned HNK Rijeka; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on HNK Rijeka by 8.8 percentage points (57.8% vs model 49.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · HNK Gorica 20.6% · Draw 30.4% · HNK Rijeka 49.0%
- xG · HNK Gorica 0.84 — HNK Rijeka 1.42
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · HNK Gorica 5.92 · Draw 3.62 · HNK Rijeka 1.64
- Implied 1X2 · HNK Gorica 16.0% · Draw 26.2% · HNK Rijeka 57.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · HNK Gorica 5.92 · Draw 3.62 · HNK Rijeka 1.64
- Implied 1X2 · HNK Gorica 16.0% · Draw 26.2% · HNK Rijeka 57.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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HNL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Rudes | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 |
| 2 | NK Osijek | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 8 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Rudes | 8 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 |
| 9 | NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 10.2 | 3.5 | +6.7 | 16 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 8 | 9.8 | 5.1 | +4.7 | 15 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | +3.9 | 16 |
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 8 | 9.4 | 7.2 | +2.2 | 9 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | 6.9 | 4.7 | +2.2 | 14 |
| 7 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 6.0 | 9.1 | -3.1 | 5 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 7.8 | 12.7 | -4.9 | 7 |
| 9 | NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | 6.9 | 12.7 | -5.8 | 7 |
| 10 | Rudes | 8 | 3.8 | 13.4 | -9.6 | 4 |
