Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

Prediction Audit: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo
Aug 22, 2026 - 16:30
2 0.92
0 1.49
xG Accuracy: 49%
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica

The model missed the final outcome (NK Slaven Belupo win 2–0).

The model had projected HNK Gorica at 48.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Gorica NK Slaven Belupo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices NK Slaven Belupo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NK Slaven Belupo -13.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NK Slaven Belupo 21.7% 35.4% -13.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 27.6% +1.8 pp Aligned
HNK Gorica 48.9% 36.9% +12.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates NK Slaven Belupo's win probability at 35.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 21.7%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was NK Slaven Belupo win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about NK Slaven Belupo than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned HNK Gorica; match finished NK Slaven Belupo
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on HNK Gorica by 13.7 percentage points (62.6% vs model 48.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 21.7% · Draw 29.4% · HNK Gorica 48.8%
    • xG · NK Slaven Belupo 0.92 — HNK Gorica 1.49
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 16:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · NK Slaven Belupo 2.69 · Draw 3.45 · HNK Gorica 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 35.4% · Draw 27.6% · HNK Gorica 36.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · NK Slaven Belupo 2.69 · Draw 3.45 · HNK Gorica 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 35.4% · Draw 27.6% · HNK Gorica 36.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NK Slaven Belupo win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 31/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4238558

Closing Odds 2.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NK Slaven Belupo win · NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 HNK Gorica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): NK Slaven Belupo 0.92 — HNK Gorica 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.41)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4