Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek

Prediction Audit: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
Aug 23, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.14
0 1.59
xG Accuracy: 29%
NK Osijek NK Osijek

The model missed the final outcome (HNK Hajduk Split win 4–0).

The model had projected NK Osijek at 41.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NK Osijek HNK Hajduk Split ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices HNK Hajduk Split higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: HNK Hajduk Split -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
HNK Hajduk Split 30.8% 41.1% -10.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.7% 26.3% +1.5 pp Aligned
NK Osijek 41.5% 32.6% +8.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates HNK Hajduk Split's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.8%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was HNK Hajduk Split win 4–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about HNK Hajduk Split than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.73) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned NK Osijek; match finished HNK Hajduk Split

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on NK Osijek by 10.3 percentage points (51.8% vs model 41.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · HNK Hajduk Split 30.9% · Draw 27.7% · NK Osijek 41.5%
    • xG · HNK Hajduk Split 1.14 — NK Osijek 1.59
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · HNK Hajduk Split 2.32 · Draw 3.63 · NK Osijek 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · HNK Hajduk Split 41.1% · Draw 26.3% · NK Osijek 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · HNK Hajduk Split 2.32 · Draw 3.63 · NK Osijek 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · HNK Hajduk Split 41.1% · Draw 26.3% · NK Osijek 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result HNK Hajduk Split win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4371239

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result HNK Hajduk Split win · HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK Osijek
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.9% · Draw 27.7% · Away 41.5%
  • xG (showing): HNK Hajduk Split 1.14 — NK Osijek 1.59 (total xG ≈ 2.73)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): NK Osijek
  • Model: 41.5% · Implied: 32.6% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +5.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.7% · No 44.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4