Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

Prediction Audit: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo
Aug 09, 2026 - 16:30
1 0.77
4 1.68
xG Accuracy: 50%
NK Varazdin NK Varazdin

AI correctly predicted the NK Varazdin win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates NK Varazdin considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: NK Varazdin +22.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NK Slaven Belupo 15.5% 35.8% -20.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.9% 29.0% -2.2 pp Aligned
NK Varazdin 57.7% 35.1% +22.5 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates NK Varazdin's win probability at 57.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.1%, a difference of 22.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (NK Varazdin win 1–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • NK Varazdin attacking xG significantly stronger (1.68 vs 0.77)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced NK Varazdin more conservatively (35.2% vs model 57.7%, 22.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (NK Varazdin win 1–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 15.4% · Draw 26.8% · NK Varazdin 57.7%
    • xG · NK Slaven Belupo 0.77 — NK Varazdin 1.68
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NK Slaven Belupo 2.66 · Draw 3.28 · NK Varazdin 2.71
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 35.8% · Draw 29.0% · NK Varazdin 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · NK Slaven Belupo 2.66 · Draw 3.28 · NK Varazdin 2.71
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Slaven Belupo 35.8% · Draw 29.0% · NK Varazdin 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NK Varazdin win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2822689

Closing Odds 2.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NK Varazdin win · NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK Varazdin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): NK Slaven Belupo 0.77 — NK Varazdin 1.68 (total xG ≈ 2.45)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4