Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola 2 / KAC Kenitra vs Mouloudia Oujda

Prediction Audit: KAC Kenitra vs Mouloudia Oujda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KAC Kenitra KAC Kenitra
Jun 14, 2026 - 16:00
1 0.99
0 0.91
xG Accuracy: 78%
Mouloudia Oujda Mouloudia Oujda

The model missed the final outcome (KAC Kenitra win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 35.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw KAC Kenitra ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices KAC Kenitra higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: KAC Kenitra -8.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
KAC Kenitra 34.5% 43.2% -8.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 35.3% 32.2% +3.1 pp Aligned
Mouloudia Oujda 30.2% 24.6% +5.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates KAC Kenitra's win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.5%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was KAC Kenitra win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on KAC Kenitra. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.90, 1 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished KAC Kenitra

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 8.7 percentage points (44.0% vs model 35.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 14, 2026 · 18:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · KAC Kenitra 34.5% · Draw 35.3% · Mouloudia Oujda 30.2%
    • xG · KAC Kenitra 0.99 — Mouloudia Oujda 0.91
  2. Jun 14, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · KAC Kenitra 2.06 · Draw 2.76 · Mouloudia Oujda 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · KAC Kenitra 43.2% · Draw 32.2% · Mouloudia Oujda 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · KAC Kenitra 2.06 · Draw 2.76 · Mouloudia Oujda 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · KAC Kenitra 43.2% · Draw 32.2% · Mouloudia Oujda 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result KAC Kenitra win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6404787

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result KAC Kenitra win · KAC Kenitra 1–0 Mouloudia Oujda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Botola 2
  • Fixture: KAC Kenitra vs Mouloudia Oujda
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.5% · Draw 35.3% · Away 30.2%
  • xG (showing): KAC Kenitra 0.99 — Mouloudia Oujda 0.91 (total xG ≈ 1.9)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 70.4% · Over 2.5 29.6%); BTTS No (Yes 39.3% · No 60.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 39.3% · No 60.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (15.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola 2 Botola 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Moghreb Tetouan 30 14 11 5 53
2 Widad Témara 30 13 14 3 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 10 16 4 46
4 El Massira 30 11 11 8 44
5 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 11 10 9 43
6 Riadi Salmi 30 10 12 8 42
7 Stade Marocain 30 11 8 11 41
8 Wydad Fès 30 9 11 10 38
9 Mouloudia Oujda 30 8 13 9 37
10 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 8 13 9 37
11 USM Oujda 30 9 10 11 37
12 Chabab Mohammédia 30 9 9 12 36
13 KAC Kenitra 30 8 12 10 36
14 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 7 14 9 35
15 Raja Beni Mellal 30 7 11 12 32
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 3 9 18 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riadi Salmi 30 37 35 +2 42
2 Widad Témara 30 36 26 +10 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 36 26 +10 46
4 KAC Kenitra 30 35 36 -1 36
5 Mouloudia Oujda 30 35 38 -3 37
6 Wydad Fès 30 34 30 +4 38
7 Moghreb Tetouan 30 33 22 +11 53
8 El Massira 30 29 21 +8 44
9 USM Oujda 30 29 30 -1 37
10 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 26 24 +2 43
11 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 25 22 +3 35
12 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 25 28 -3 37
13 Raja Beni Mellal 30 25 32 -7 32
14 Chabab Mohammédia 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Stade Marocain 30 23 24 -1 41
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 21 43 -22 18
Botola 2 Morocco. Botola 2 Predictions