Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Ario Eslamshahr vs Be'sat Kermanshah

Prediction Audit: Ario Eslamshahr vs Be'sat Kermanshah Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr
Jun 27, 2026 - 16:15
2 0.84
0 0.72
xG Accuracy: 60%
Be'sat Kermanshah Be'sat Kermanshah

The model missed the final outcome (Ario Eslamshahr win 2–0).

The model had projected Draw at 39.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Draw Ario Eslamshahr ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Be'sat Kermanshah considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Be'sat Kermanshah +10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ario Eslamshahr 33.9% 42.4% -8.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 39.1% 41.0% -1.9 pp Aligned
Be'sat Kermanshah 27.0% 16.6% +10.4 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Be'sat Kermanshah's win probability at 27.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 16.6%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ario Eslamshahr win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Be'sat Kermanshah.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.56, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Ario Eslamshahr

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 10.4 percentage points (28.7% vs model 39.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 21:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 33.9% · Draw 39.1% · Be'sat Kermanshah 27.0%
    • xG · Ario Eslamshahr 0.84 — Be'sat Kermanshah 0.72
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ario Eslamshahr 2.11 · Draw 2.17 · Be'sat Kermanshah 5.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 42.1% · Draw 41.0% · Be'sat Kermanshah 16.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ario Eslamshahr 2.12 · Draw 2.19 · Be'sat Kermanshah 5.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 42.4% · Draw 41.0% · Be'sat Kermanshah 16.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ario Eslamshahr win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1544134

Closing Odds 5.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ario Eslamshahr win · Ario Eslamshahr 2–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Ario Eslamshahr vs Be'sat Kermanshah
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Ario Eslamshahr 0.84 — Be'sat Kermanshah 0.72 (total xG ≈ 1.56)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
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