Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Niroye Zamini

Prediction Audit: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Niroye Zamini Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mes Shahr-e Babak Mes Shahr-e Babak
Jun 27, 2026 - 16:00
1 0.94
0 0.62
xG Accuracy: 83%
Niroye Zamini Niroye Zamini

AI correctly predicted the Mes Shahr-e Babak win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mes Shahr-e Babak Mes Shahr-e Babak ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mes Shahr-e Babak higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mes Shahr-e Babak -17.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mes Shahr-e Babak 40.0% 57.0% -17.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 38.4% 28.5% +9.8 pp Model Higher
Niroye Zamini 21.6% 14.5% +7.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Mes Shahr-e Babak's win probability at 57.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.0%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mes Shahr-e Babak win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Mes Shahr-e Babak than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.56, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mes Shahr-e Babak higher (57.0% vs model 40.0%, 17.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mes Shahr-e Babak win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 21:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 40.0% · Draw 38.3% · Niroye Zamini 21.6%
    • xG · Mes Shahr-e Babak 0.94 — Niroye Zamini 0.62
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.56 · Draw 3.12 · Niroye Zamini 6.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 57.0% · Draw 28.5% · Niroye Zamini 14.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.56 · Draw 3.12 · Niroye Zamini 6.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 57.0% · Draw 28.5% · Niroye Zamini 14.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mes Shahr-e Babak win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1619350

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mes Shahr-e Babak win · Mes Shahr-e Babak 1–0 Niroye Zamini
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Niroye Zamini
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Mes Shahr-e Babak 0.94 — Niroye Zamini 0.62 (total xG ≈ 1.56)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
Azadegan League Iran. Azadegan League Predictions