Prediction Audit: Sanat Naft vs Shahrdari Noshahr Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sanat Naft

Jun 21, 2026 - 16:00

1 0.93

1 0.60

xG Accuracy: 88%

Shahrdari Noshahr

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sanat Naft at 40.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sanat Naft Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sanat Naft	40.2%	55.2%	-15.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	38.7%	29.3%	+9.3 pp	Model Higher
Shahrdari Noshahr	21.1%	15.5%	+5.6 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Sanat Naft's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.2%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sanat Naft than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.53, 2 goals)
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned Sanat Naft; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sanat Naft by 15.0 percentage points (55.2% vs model 40.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 21, 2026 · 20:19 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sanat Naft 40.2% · Draw 38.7% · Shahrdari Noshahr 21.1%
- xG · Sanat Naft 0.93 — Shahrdari Noshahr 0.60
Jun 21, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sanat Naft 1.61 · Draw 3.03 · Shahrdari Noshahr 5.73
- Implied 1X2 · Sanat Naft 55.2% · Draw 29.3% · Shahrdari Noshahr 15.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 21, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sanat Naft 1.61 · Draw 3.03 · Shahrdari Noshahr 5.73
- Implied 1X2 · Sanat Naft 55.2% · Draw 29.3% · Shahrdari Noshahr 15.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jun 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 25/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1800699

Closing Odds 1.61

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Sanat Naft 1–1 Shahrdari Noshahr

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Sanat Naft vs Shahrdari Noshahr
Kickoff: 2026-06-21 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Sanat Naft 0.93 — Shahrdari Noshahr 0.6 (total xG ≈ 1.53)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nassaji Mazandaran	34	20	9	5	69
2	Mes Shahr-e Babak	34	19	11	4	68
3	Sanat Naft	34	16	12	6	60
4	Saipa	34	16	11	7	59
5	Pars Jonoubi JAM	34	16	12	6	57
6	Havadar	34	11	17	6	50
7	Fard Alborz	34	10	16	8	46
8	Mes Kerman	34	10	15	9	45
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	34	10	17	7	44
10	Ario Eslamshahr	34	9	16	9	43
11	Be'sat Kermanshah	34	9	11	14	35
12	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	34	8	11	15	35
13	Mes Soongoun	34	9	10	15	34
14	Niroye Zamini	34	8	12	14	33
15	Naft Gachsaran	34	7	14	13	32
16	Shahrdari Noshahr	34	5	15	14	27
17	Navad Urmia	34	4	12	18	24
18	Damash Gilanian	34	2	13	19	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nassaji Mazandaran	34	48	17	+31	69
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	34	44	22	+22	57
3	Mes Shahr-e Babak	34	41	14	+27	68
4	Sanat Naft	34	37	21	+16	60
5	Havadar	34	32	23	+9	50
6	Saipa	34	30	18	+12	59
7	Niroye Zamini	34	28	31	-3	33
8	Naft Bandar Abbas	34	26	19	+7	44
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	34	25	32	-7	35
10	Naft Gachsaran	34	25	41	-16	32
11	Fard Alborz	34	24	15	+9	46
12	Mes Kerman	34	23	18	+5	45
13	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	34	23	36	-13	35
14	Ario Eslamshahr	34	19	18	+1	43
15	Shahrdari Noshahr	34	18	29	-11	27
16	Mes Soongoun	34	17	34	-17	34
17	Navad Urmia	34	16	48	-32	24
18	Damash Gilanian	34	16	56	-40	16