Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Nassaji Mazandaran vs Mes Shahr-e Babak

Prediction Audit: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Mes Shahr-e Babak Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nassaji Mazandaran Nassaji Mazandaran
Jun 21, 2026 - 15:30
1 0.84
0 0.69
xG Accuracy: 79%
Mes Shahr-e Babak Mes Shahr-e Babak

The model missed the final outcome (Nassaji Mazandaran win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 39.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Draw Nassaji Mazandaran ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Nassaji Mazandaran higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nassaji Mazandaran -8.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nassaji Mazandaran 34.7% 43.1% -8.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 39.4% 33.8% +5.6 pp Model Higher
Mes Shahr-e Babak 25.9% 23.1% +2.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Nassaji Mazandaran's win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Nassaji Mazandaran win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Nassaji Mazandaran. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.53, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Nassaji Mazandaran

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 8.4 percentage points (47.8% vs model 39.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 20:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nassaji Mazandaran 34.6% · Draw 39.4% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 25.9%
    • xG · Nassaji Mazandaran 0.84 — Mes Shahr-e Babak 0.69
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nassaji Mazandaran 2.06 · Draw 2.63 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Nassaji Mazandaran 43.1% · Draw 33.8% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 21, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nassaji Mazandaran 2.06 · Draw 2.63 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Nassaji Mazandaran 43.1% · Draw 33.8% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 21, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nassaji Mazandaran win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1662524

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nassaji Mazandaran win · Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Nassaji Mazandaran 0.84 — Mes Shahr-e Babak 0.69 (total xG ≈ 1.53)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
Azadegan League Iran. Azadegan League Predictions