Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Saipa vs Ario Eslamshahr

Prediction Audit: Saipa vs Ario Eslamshahr Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Saipa Saipa
Jun 21, 2026 - 15:00
1 0.87
0 0.66
xG Accuracy: 80%
Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr

The model missed the final outcome (Saipa win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 39.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Draw Saipa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Saipa -4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Saipa 36.5% 41.4% -4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 39.2% 38.7% +0.6 pp Aligned
Ario Eslamshahr 24.3% 20.0% +4.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Saipa win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.53, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Saipa

Market lesson

The full-time result was Saipa win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Saipa 36.5% · Draw 39.2% · Ario Eslamshahr 24.3%
    • xG · Saipa 0.87 — Ario Eslamshahr 0.66
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Saipa 2.15 · Draw 2.30 · Ario Eslamshahr 4.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Saipa 41.4% · Draw 38.7% · Ario Eslamshahr 20.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Saipa 2.15 · Draw 2.30 · Ario Eslamshahr 4.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Saipa 41.4% · Draw 38.7% · Ario Eslamshahr 20.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 21, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Saipa win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1611323

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Saipa win · Saipa 1–0 Ario Eslamshahr
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Saipa vs Ario Eslamshahr
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Saipa 0.87 — Ario Eslamshahr 0.66 (total xG ≈ 1.53)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Azadegan League Matches Track Saipa Next Match Prediction Track Ario Eslamshahr Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Saipa & Ario Eslamshahr!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
Azadegan League Iran. Azadegan League Predictions