Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Bandar Abbas

Prediction Audit: Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Bandar Abbas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr
Jun 16, 2026 - 14:30
1 0.79
0 0.75
xG Accuracy: 77%
Naft Bandar Abbas Naft Bandar Abbas

The model missed the final outcome (Ario Eslamshahr win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 38.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Ario Eslamshahr ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ario Eslamshahr higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ario Eslamshahr -12.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ario Eslamshahr 34.5% 46.9% -12.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 38.7% 34.2% +4.5 pp Aligned
Naft Bandar Abbas 26.9% 18.9% +8.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Ario Eslamshahr's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.5%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ario Eslamshahr win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ario Eslamshahr than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.54, 1 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Ario Eslamshahr

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 12.5 percentage points (51.2% vs model 38.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 15, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 34.4% · Draw 38.7% · Naft Bandar Abbas 26.9%
    • xG · Ario Eslamshahr 0.79 — Naft Bandar Abbas 0.75
  2. Jun 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ario Eslamshahr 1.91 · Draw 2.62 · Naft Bandar Abbas 4.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 46.9% · Draw 34.2% · Naft Bandar Abbas 18.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jun 15, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ario Eslamshahr 1.91 · Draw 2.62 · Naft Bandar Abbas 4.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 46.9% · Draw 34.2% · Naft Bandar Abbas 18.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jun 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ario Eslamshahr win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 04:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2491071

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ario Eslamshahr win · Ario Eslamshahr 1–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Bandar Abbas
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-15 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.4% · Draw 38.7% · Away 26.9%
  • xG (showing): Ario Eslamshahr 0.79 — Naft Bandar Abbas 0.75 (total xG ≈ 1.54)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 79.9% · Over 2.5 20.1%); BTTS No (Yes 30.5% · No 69.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 30.5% · No 69.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (21.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
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