Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Shahrdari Noshahr vs Navad Urmia

Prediction Audit: Shahrdari Noshahr vs Navad Urmia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shahrdari Noshahr Shahrdari Noshahr
Jun 16, 2026 - 13:30
0 0.87
0 0.67
xG Accuracy: 66%
Navad Urmia Navad Urmia

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 0–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Shahrdari Noshahr higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Shahrdari Noshahr -13.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shahrdari Noshahr 36.2% 49.9% -13.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 39.1% 32.1% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Navad Urmia 24.6% 18.0% +6.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Shahrdari Noshahr's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.2%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Draw 0–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Shahrdari Noshahr than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.54, 0 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Draw higher (52.8% vs model 39.1%, 13.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Draw 0–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 15, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shahrdari Noshahr 36.3% · Draw 39.1% · Navad Urmia 24.6%
    • xG · Shahrdari Noshahr 0.87 — Navad Urmia 0.67
  2. Jun 15, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shahrdari Noshahr 1.80 · Draw 2.80 · Navad Urmia 5.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Shahrdari Noshahr 49.9% · Draw 32.1% · Navad Urmia 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jun 15, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shahrdari Noshahr 1.80 · Draw 2.80 · Navad Urmia 5.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Shahrdari Noshahr 49.9% · Draw 32.1% · Navad Urmia 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jun 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 18:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3203710

Closing Odds 1.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Shahrdari Noshahr 0–0 Navad Urmia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Shahrdari Noshahr vs Navad Urmia
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-15 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.3% · Draw 39.1% · Away 24.6%
  • xG (showing): Shahrdari Noshahr 0.87 — Navad Urmia 0.67 (total xG ≈ 1.54)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 79.9% · Implied: 70.4% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 30.0% · No 70.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (21.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
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