The model missed the final outcome (Dunfermline win 0–1).
The model had projected ST Mirren at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 ST Mirren Dunfermline ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 43.8% | 54.2% | -10.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.9% | 23.2% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Dunfermline | 28.3% | 22.6% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates ST Mirren's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Dunfermline win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about ST Mirren than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned ST Mirren; match finished Dunfermline
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on ST Mirren by 10.4 percentage points (54.2% vs model 43.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 19:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · ST Mirren 43.8% · Draw 27.8% · Dunfermline 28.3%
- xG · ST Mirren 1.40 — Dunfermline 1.20
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · ST Mirren 1.69 · Draw 3.95 · Dunfermline 4.05
- Implied 1X2 · ST Mirren 54.2% · Draw 23.2% · Dunfermline 22.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · ST Mirren 1.69 · Draw 3.95 · Dunfermline 4.05
- Implied 1X2 · ST Mirren 54.2% · Draw 23.2% · Dunfermline 22.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dunfermline win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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