Predictions / Football / Scotland. League Cup / Peterhead vs Kilmarnock

Prediction Audit: Peterhead vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Peterhead Peterhead
Jul 25, 2026 - 14:00
0(5) 1.23
0(4) 1.37
xG Accuracy: 49%
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Kilmarnock at 48.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kilmarnock Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kilmarnock higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kilmarnock -21.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Peterhead 24.9% 12.2% +12.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 27.0% 18.2% +8.8 pp Model Higher
Kilmarnock 48.1% 69.5% -21.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kilmarnock's win probability at 69.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.1%, a difference of 21.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Kilmarnock; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kilmarnock by 21.4 percentage points (69.5% vs model 48.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 21:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Peterhead 24.9% · Draw 27.0% · Kilmarnock 48.1%
    • xG · Peterhead 1.23 — Kilmarnock 1.37
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Peterhead 7.50 · Draw 5.03 · Kilmarnock 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Peterhead 12.2% · Draw 18.2% · Kilmarnock 69.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Peterhead 7.50 · Draw 5.03 · Kilmarnock 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Peterhead 12.2% · Draw 18.2% · Kilmarnock 69.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455967

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Peterhead 0–0 Kilmarnock
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Scottish League Cup
  • Fixture: Peterhead vs Kilmarnock
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Peterhead 1.23 — Kilmarnock 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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