Predictions / Football / Scotland. League Cup / Dundee vs Clyde

Prediction Audit: Dundee vs Clyde Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dundee Dundee
Jul 25, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 35%
Clyde Clyde

AI correctly predicted the Dundee win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dundee Dundee ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dundee higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dundee -26.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dundee 54.3% 81.0% -26.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.1% 12.1% +13.0 pp Model Edge
Clyde 20.6% 7.0% +13.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dundee's win probability at 81.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 54.3%, a difference of 26.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dundee win 4–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dundee higher (80.9% vs model 54.3%, 26.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dundee win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 21:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dundee 54.4% · Draw 25.1% · Clyde 20.6%
    • xG · Dundee 1.41 — Clyde 1.19
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dundee 1.13 · Draw 7.57 · Clyde 13.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Dundee 81.0% · Draw 12.1% · Clyde 7.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Dundee 1.13 · Draw 7.57 · Clyde 13.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Dundee 81.0% · Draw 12.1% · Clyde 7.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dundee win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455957

Closing Odds 1.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dundee win · Dundee 4–0 Clyde
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Scottish League Cup
  • Fixture: Dundee vs Clyde
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Dundee 1.41 — Clyde 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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