Predictions / Football / Scotland. League Cup / Montrose vs Dundee Utd

Prediction Audit: Montrose vs Dundee Utd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Montrose Montrose
Jul 14, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd

The model missed the final outcome (Montrose win 1–0).

The model had projected Dundee Utd at 46.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dundee Utd Montrose ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dundee Utd higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dundee Utd -23.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Montrose 26.6% 12.4% +14.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 27.0% 17.4% +9.6 pp Model Higher
Dundee Utd 46.4% 70.2% -23.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Dundee Utd's win probability at 70.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.4%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Montrose win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dundee Utd; match finished Montrose

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dundee Utd by 23.8 percentage points (70.2% vs model 46.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 14, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Montrose 26.6% · Draw 27.1% · Dundee Utd 46.3%
    • xG · Montrose 1.28 — Dundee Utd 1.32
  2. Jul 14, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Montrose 7.48 · Draw 5.33 · Dundee Utd 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Montrose 12.4% · Draw 17.4% · Dundee Utd 70.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Montrose 7.48 · Draw 5.33 · Dundee Utd 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Montrose 12.4% · Draw 17.4% · Dundee Utd 70.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Montrose win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1471759

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Montrose win · Montrose 1–0 Dundee Utd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: League Cup
  • Fixture: Montrose vs Dundee Utd
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-14 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.6% · Draw 27.1% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Montrose 1.28 — Dundee Utd 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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