Predictions / Football / Scotland. League Cup / Dunfermline vs Dumbarton

Prediction Audit: Dunfermline vs Dumbarton Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dunfermline Dunfermline
Jul 14, 2026 - 18:45
4 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 47%
Dumbarton Dumbarton

AI correctly predicted the Dunfermline win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dunfermline Dunfermline ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dunfermline higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dunfermline -23.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dunfermline 53.4% 77.1% -23.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 14.7% +11.0 pp Model Edge
Dumbarton 20.9% 8.2% +12.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dunfermline's win probability at 77.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.4%, a difference of 23.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dunfermline win 4–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dunfermline higher (77.1% vs model 53.4%, 23.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dunfermline win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 14, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dunfermline 53.4% · Draw 25.7% · Dumbarton 20.9%
    • xG · Dunfermline 1.43 — Dumbarton 1.17
  2. Jul 14, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dunfermline 1.19 · Draw 6.22 · Dumbarton 11.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Dunfermline 77.1% · Draw 14.7% · Dumbarton 8.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 14, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dunfermline 1.19 · Draw 6.22 · Dumbarton 11.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Dunfermline 77.1% · Draw 14.7% · Dumbarton 8.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dunfermline win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1806269

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dunfermline win · Dunfermline 4–1 Dumbarton
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: League Cup
  • Fixture: Dunfermline vs Dumbarton
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-14 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.4% · Draw 25.7% · Away 20.9%
  • xG (showing): Dunfermline 1.43 — Dumbarton 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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