Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Newcastle vs Everton

Prediction Audit: Newcastle vs Everton Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Newcastle Newcastle
Aug 12, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.36
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Everton Everton

The model missed the final outcome (Everton win 1–3).

The model had projected Newcastle at 38.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Newcastle Everton ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Newcastle -4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Newcastle 38.1% 43.0% -4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.3% 26.3% +3.0 pp Aligned
Everton 32.5% 30.6% +1.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Everton win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Newcastle; match finished Everton

Market lesson

The full-time result was Everton win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 12, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Newcastle 38.2% · Draw 29.3% · Everton 32.5%
    • xG · Newcastle 1.36 — Everton 1.24
  2. Aug 12, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Newcastle 2.13 · Draw 3.48 · Everton 2.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Newcastle 43.0% · Draw 26.3% · Everton 30.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 12, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Newcastle 2.13 · Draw 3.48 · Everton 2.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Newcastle 43.0% · Draw 26.3% · Everton 30.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 12, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Everton win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 75/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3093292

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Everton win · Newcastle 1–3 Everton
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Newcastle vs Everton
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-12 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.2% · Draw 29.3% · Away 32.5%
  • xG (showing): Newcastle 1.36 — Everton 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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