Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen

Prediction Audit: TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TSV Steinbach TSV Steinbach
Jul 25, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.52
8 1.08
xG Accuracy: 13%
Sportfreunde Siegen Sportfreunde Siegen

The model missed the final outcome (Sportfreunde Siegen win 2–8).

The model had projected TSV Steinbach at 43.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 TSV Steinbach Sportfreunde Siegen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-8 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sportfreunde Siegen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sportfreunde Siegen -7.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
TSV Steinbach 43.9% 38.1% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.1% 26.9% +1.3 pp Aligned
Sportfreunde Siegen 27.9% 35.0% -7.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sportfreunde Siegen's win probability at 35.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sportfreunde Siegen win 2–8.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sportfreunde Siegen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 10 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (10 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned TSV Steinbach; match finished Sportfreunde Siegen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on TSV Steinbach by 7.1 percentage points (51.0% vs model 43.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · TSV Steinbach 43.9% · Draw 28.2% · Sportfreunde Siegen 27.9%
    • xG · TSV Steinbach 1.52 — Sportfreunde Siegen 1.08
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · TSV Steinbach 2.33 · Draw 3.31 · Sportfreunde Siegen 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · TSV Steinbach 38.1% · Draw 26.9% · Sportfreunde Siegen 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · TSV Steinbach 2.33 · Draw 3.31 · Sportfreunde Siegen 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · TSV Steinbach 38.1% · Draw 26.9% · Sportfreunde Siegen 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sportfreunde Siegen win · 2–8
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453501

Closing Odds 2.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sportfreunde Siegen win · TSV Steinbach 2–8 Sportfreunde Siegen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: TSV Steinbach Haiger vs Sportfreunde Siegen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): TSV Steinbach Haiger 1.52 — Sportfreunde Siegen 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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