AI correctly predicted the Wealdstone win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Wealdstone Wealdstone ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone | 38.8% | 51.0% | -12.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 25.0% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Hemel Hempstead Town | 32.6% | 24.0% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Wealdstone's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.8%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wealdstone win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Wealdstone than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wealdstone higher (51.0% vs model 38.8%, 12.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wealdstone win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 20:25 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wealdstone 38.8% · Draw 28.6% · Hemel Hempstead Town 32.6%
- xG · Wealdstone 1.29 — Hemel Hempstead Town 1.31
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wealdstone 1.74 · Draw 3.55 · Hemel Hempstead Town 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Wealdstone 51.0% · Draw 25.0% · Hemel Hempstead Town 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Wealdstone 1.74 · Draw 3.55 · Hemel Hempstead Town 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Wealdstone 51.0% · Draw 25.0% · Hemel Hempstead Town 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Wealdstone win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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