Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Sparta Praha II vs FSV Zwickau

Prediction Audit: Sparta Praha II vs FSV Zwickau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sparta Praha II Sparta Praha II
Jul 17, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 52%
FSV Zwickau FSV Zwickau

The model missed the final outcome (Sparta Praha II win 3–2).

The model had projected FSV Zwickau at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FSV Zwickau Sparta Praha II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FSV Zwickau higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FSV Zwickau -8.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sparta Praha II 34.3% 29.4% +4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 27.2% 23.8% +3.4 pp Aligned
FSV Zwickau 38.5% 46.8% -8.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FSV Zwickau's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sparta Praha II win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FSV Zwickau. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned FSV Zwickau; match finished Sparta Praha II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FSV Zwickau by 8.2 percentage points (46.7% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sparta Praha II 34.3% · Draw 27.2% · FSV Zwickau 38.5%
    • xG · Sparta Praha II 1.31 — FSV Zwickau 1.29
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Praha II 3.02 · Draw 3.73 · FSV Zwickau 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Praha II 29.4% · Draw 23.8% · FSV Zwickau 46.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Praha II 3.02 · Draw 3.73 · FSV Zwickau 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Praha II 29.4% · Draw 23.8% · FSV Zwickau 46.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sparta Praha II win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 17:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2054423

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sparta Praha II win · Sparta Praha II 3–2 FSV Zwickau
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Sparta Praha II vs FSV Zwickau
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Sparta Praha II 1.31 — FSV Zwickau 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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