Prediction Audit: Hansa Rostock vs Greifswalder FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hansa Rostock

Jul 15, 2026 - 14:30

3 1.42

0 1.18

xG Accuracy: 47%

Greifswalder FC

AI correctly predicted the Hansa Rostock win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hansa Rostock	57.3%	82.4%	-25.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	22.4%	9.7%	+12.7 pp	Model Edge
Greifswalder FC	20.4%	7.9%	+12.4 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Hansa Rostock's win probability at 82.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 57.3%, a difference of 25.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hansa Rostock win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hansa Rostock higher (82.4% vs model 57.3%, 25.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hansa Rostock win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 15, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 57.2% · Draw 22.4% · Greifswalder FC 20.4%
- xG · Hansa Rostock 1.42 — Greifswalder FC 1.18
Jul 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hansa Rostock 1.05 · Draw 8.92 · Greifswalder FC 10.89
- Implied 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 82.4% · Draw 9.7% · Greifswalder FC 7.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 15, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hansa Rostock 1.05 · Draw 8.92 · Greifswalder FC 10.89
- Implied 1X2 · Hansa Rostock 82.4% · Draw 9.7% · Greifswalder FC 7.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 15, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hansa Rostock win · 3–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (25 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 18:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2056032

Closing Odds 1.05

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hansa Rostock win · Hansa Rostock 3–0 Greifswalder FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Greifswalder FC
Kickoff: 2026-07-15 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Hansa Rostock 1.42 — Greifswalder FC 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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