Predictions / Football / World. CONMEBOL Sudamericana / Gremio vs Bolívar

Prediction Audit: Gremio vs Bolívar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gremio Gremio
Jul 30, 2026 - 22:00
0 1.34
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 67%
Bolívar Bolívar

The model missed the final outcome (Bolívar win 0–1).

The model had projected Gremio at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gremio Bolívar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gremio higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gremio -31.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gremio 39.9% 71.6% -31.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.3% 17.8% +12.6 pp Model Edge
Bolívar 29.8% 10.6% +19.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gremio's win probability at 71.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 31.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Bolívar win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Gremio; match finished Bolívar

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gremio by 31.8 percentage points (71.7% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 30, 2026 · 22:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gremio 39.8% · Draw 30.3% · Bolívar 29.9%
    • xG · Gremio 1.34 — Bolívar 1.13
  2. Jul 30, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gremio 1.32 · Draw 5.32 · Bolívar 8.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Gremio 71.6% · Draw 17.8% · Bolívar 10.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 30, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gremio 1.32 · Draw 5.32 · Bolívar 8.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Gremio 71.6% · Draw 17.8% · Bolívar 10.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 30, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bolívar win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1528246

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bolívar win · Gremio 0–1 Bolívar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Gremio; market prices Gremio instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Gremio 1.34 xG vs Bolívar 1.13 → Gremio 39.9%
  • Market: Gremio ~71.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.1% · Over 2.5 44.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.6% · No 48.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Macara 6 2 4 0 10
2 Tigre 6 2 3 1 9
3 America de Cali 6 2 3 1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 8 5 +3 9
2 Macara 6 6 3 +3 10
3 America de Cali 6 6 5 +1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 2 9 -7 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 4.1 3.0 +1.1 9
2 Macara 6 1.2 1.6 -0.4 10
3 America de Cali 6 — — — 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 — — — 2