The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Vasco DA Gama at 43.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Vasco da Gama Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 24.5% | 37.0% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.0% | 30.9% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Vasco DA Gama | 43.5% | 32.1% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Independiente Medellin's win probability at 37.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 24.5%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Independiente Medellin than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vasco DA Gama by 12.5 percentage points (56.0% vs model 43.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Independiente Medellin 24.5% · Draw 32.0% · Vasco DA Gama 43.5%
- xG · Independiente Medellin 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama 1.28
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Independiente Medellin 2.58 · Draw 3.08 · Vasco DA Gama 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente Medellin 37.0% · Draw 30.9% · Vasco DA Gama 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Independiente Medellin 2.58 · Draw 3.08 · Vasco DA Gama 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente Medellin 37.0% · Draw 30.9% · Vasco DA Gama 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 43.5%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Independiente Medellin & Vasco DA Gama!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Tigre | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | America de Cali | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tigre | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | Macara | 6 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | America de Cali | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tigre | 6 | 4.1 | 3.0 | +1.1 | 9 |
| 2 | Macara | 6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -0.4 | 10 |
| 3 | America de Cali | 6 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | — | — | — | 2 |
