Predictions / Football / World. CONMEBOL Libertadores / LDU de Quito vs Mirassol

Prediction Audit: LDU de Quito vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
Aug 20, 2026 - 22:00
0(5) 1.02
0(4) 0.84
xG Accuracy: 60%
Mirassol Mirassol

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected LDU de Quito at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 LDU de Quito Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices LDU de Quito higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: LDU de Quito -23.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
LDU de Quito 37.1% 60.5% -23.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 35.5% 24.9% +10.6 pp Model Edge
Mirassol 27.4% 14.6% +12.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates LDU de Quito's win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.86, 0 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned LDU de Quito; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on LDU de Quito by 23.4 percentage points (60.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 20, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · LDU de Quito 37.1% · Draw 35.5% · Mirassol 27.4%
    • xG · LDU de Quito 1.02 — Mirassol 0.84
  2. Aug 20, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · LDU de Quito 1.58 · Draw 3.87 · Mirassol 6.60
    • Implied 1X2 · LDU de Quito 60.7% · Draw 24.8% · Mirassol 14.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 20, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · LDU de Quito 1.58 · Draw 3.84 · Mirassol 6.57
    • Implied 1X2 · LDU de Quito 60.5% · Draw 24.9% · Mirassol 14.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 20, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 07:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3924154

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · LDU de Quito 0–0 Mirassol
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: CONMEBOL Libertadores
  • Fixture: LDU de Quito vs Mirassol
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-20 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.1% · Draw 35.5% · Away 27.4%
  • xG (showing): LDU de Quito 1.02 — Mirassol 0.84 (total xG ≈ 1.86)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 71.5% · Over 2.5 28.5%); BTTS No (Yes 38.1% · No 61.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.1% · No 61.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Libertadores CONMEBOL Libertadores — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 2 3 1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 2 1 3 7
4 Cusco 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 14 2 +12 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 6 5 +1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 6 11 -5 7
4 Cusco 6 4 12 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 3.4 1.0 +2.4 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 3.6 1.3 +2.3 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 — — — 7
4 Cusco 6 — — — 1