Predictions / Football / World. CONMEBOL Libertadores / Mirassol vs LDU de Quito

Prediction Audit: Mirassol vs LDU de Quito Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mirassol Mirassol
Aug 13, 2026 - 22:00
1 0.80
1 0.90
xG Accuracy: 92%
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 1–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mirassol higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mirassol -28.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mirassol 28.5% 57.1% -28.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 37.4% 27.9% +9.5 pp Model Higher
LDU de Quito 34.1% 14.9% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Mirassol's win probability at 57.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.5%, a difference of 28.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Draw 1–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.70, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Draw higher (66.0% vs model 37.4%, 28.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Draw 1–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 13, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mirassol 28.5% · Draw 37.4% · LDU de Quito 34.1%
    • xG · Mirassol 0.80 — LDU de Quito 0.90
  2. Aug 13, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mirassol 1.68 · Draw 3.44 · LDU de Quito 6.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Mirassol 57.1% · Draw 27.9% · LDU de Quito 14.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 13, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mirassol 1.68 · Draw 3.44 · LDU de Quito 6.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Mirassol 57.1% · Draw 27.9% · LDU de Quito 14.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 13, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3153906

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mirassol 1–1 LDU de Quito
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: CONMEBOL Libertadores
  • Fixture: Mirassol vs LDU de Quito
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-13 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.5% · Draw 37.4% · Away 34.1%
  • xG (showing): Mirassol 0.8 — LDU de Quito 0.9 (total xG ≈ 1.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 75.7% · Over 2.5 24.3%); BTTS No (Yes 34.4% · No 65.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.4% · No 65.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (18.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Libertadores CONMEBOL Libertadores — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 2 3 1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 2 1 3 7
4 Cusco 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 14 2 +12 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 6 5 +1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 6 11 -5 7
4 Cusco 6 4 12 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 3.4 1.0 +2.4 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 3.6 1.3 +2.3 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 — — — 7
4 Cusco 6 — — — 1