Predictions / Football / Brazil. Mineiro - 2 / Caldense vs CAP

Prediction Audit: Caldense vs CAP Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Caldense Caldense
Jul 01, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 71%
CAP CAP

The model missed the final outcome (CAP win 1–2).

The model had projected Caldense at 41.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Caldense CAP ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: CAP +3.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Caldense 41.6% 43.2% -1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 30.5% 32.7% -2.2 pp Aligned
CAP 27.9% 24.1% +3.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CAP win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Caldense; match finished CAP

Market lesson

The full-time result was CAP win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 01, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Caldense 41.7% · Draw 30.5% · CAP 27.9%
    • xG · Caldense 1.42 — CAP 1.18
  2. Jul 01, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Caldense 2.08 · Draw 2.75 · CAP 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Caldense 43.2% · Draw 32.7% · CAP 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 01, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Caldense 2.08 · Draw 2.75 · CAP 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Caldense 43.2% · Draw 32.7% · CAP 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 01, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CAP win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 81/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 19:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2075774

Closing Odds 3.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CAP win · Caldense 1–2 CAP
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Mineiro - 2
  • Fixture: Caldense vs CAP
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-01 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.7% · Draw 30.5% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Caldense 1.42 — CAP 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Mineiro - 2 Mineiro - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uberaba 10 7 2 1 23
2 Valeriodoce 10 5 5 0 20
3 Democrata SL 10 5 2 3 17
4 BOA 10 5 2 3 17
5 Aymorés 10 4 4 2 16
6 Villa Nova 10 4 2 4 14
7 CAP 10 3 3 4 12
8 Mamoré 10 3 3 4 12
9 Guarani MG 10 3 3 4 12
10 Coimbra 10 2 4 4 10
11 Caldense 10 1 3 6 6
12 Ipatinga 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Democrata SL 10 19 10 +9 17
2 Uberaba 10 17 9 +8 23
3 Aymorés 10 17 9 +8 16
4 Villa Nova 10 17 12 +5 14
5 BOA 10 12 9 +3 17
6 Coimbra 10 12 12 0 10
7 Guarani MG 10 12 14 -2 12
8 Valeriodoce 10 9 4 +5 20
9 CAP 10 9 9 0 12
10 Mamoré 10 8 9 -1 12
11 Caldense 10 6 14 -8 6
12 Ipatinga 10 6 33 -27 4