Predictions / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Prediction Audit: Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:45
0 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 49%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Suduva Marijampole -4.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Suduva Marijampole 31.9% 36.4% -4.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.6% +0.9 pp Aligned
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 38.5% 35.0% +3.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FK Zalgiris Vilnius; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Suduva Marijampole 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 38.5%
    • xG · Suduva Marijampole 1.23 — FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.37
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Suduva Marijampole 2.55 · Draw 3.24 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Suduva Marijampole 36.4% · Draw 28.6% · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Suduva Marijampole 2.55 · Draw 3.24 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Suduva Marijampole 36.4% · Draw 28.6% · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7450439

Closing Odds 2.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Suduva Marijampole 0–0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: A Lyga
  • Fixture: Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Suduva Marijampole 1.23 — FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 49.7% · Probability edge: +2.1 pts · Est. EV: +2.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0