Predictions / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai

Prediction Audit: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 64%
Šiauliai Šiauliai

AI correctly predicted the FK Zalgiris Vilnius win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Zalgiris Vilnius higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius -35.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 41.4% 77.1% -35.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 14.6% +14.7 pp Model Edge
Šiauliai 29.2% 8.2% +21.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates FK Zalgiris Vilnius's win probability at 77.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 35.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FK Zalgiris Vilnius higher (77.1% vs model 41.4%, 35.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Šiauliai 29.3%
    • xG · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.43 — Šiauliai 1.17
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.20 · Draw 6.32 · Šiauliai 11.25
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 77.1% · Draw 14.6% · Šiauliai 8.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.20 · Draw 6.32 · Šiauliai 11.25
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 77.1% · Draw 14.6% · Šiauliai 8.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Zalgiris Vilnius win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (36 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6366348

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Zalgiris Vilnius win · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Šiauliai
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius; market prices FK Zalgiris Vilnius instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.43 xG vs Šiauliai 1.17 → FK Zalgiris Vilnius 41.4%
  • Market: FK Zalgiris Vilnius ~77.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0