The model missed the final outcome (Suduva Marijampole win 1–2).
The model had projected TransINVEST Vilnius at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 TransINVEST Vilnius Suduva Marijampole ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 35.2% | 28.9% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.3% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Suduva Marijampole | 35.2% | 41.8% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Suduva Marijampole's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Suduva Marijampole win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Suduva Marijampole. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned TransINVEST Vilnius; match finished Suduva Marijampole
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on TransINVEST Vilnius by 6.6 percentage points (41.8% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · TransINVEST Vilnius 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Suduva Marijampole 35.2%
- xG · TransINVEST Vilnius 1.30 — Suduva Marijampole 1.30
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · TransINVEST Vilnius 3.21 · Draw 3.17 · Suduva Marijampole 2.22
- Implied 1X2 · TransINVEST Vilnius 28.9% · Draw 29.3% · Suduva Marijampole 41.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · TransINVEST Vilnius 3.21 · Draw 3.17 · Suduva Marijampole 2.22
- Implied 1X2 · TransINVEST Vilnius 28.9% · Draw 29.3% · Suduva Marijampole 41.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Suduva Marijampole win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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A Lyga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 4 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 56 | 20 | +36 | 51 |
| 2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 45 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 44 |
| 4 | Suduva Marijampole | 28 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 50 |
| 5 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 38 |
| 6 | Banga | 28 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 41 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Panevėžys | 28 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 32 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
