The model missed the final outcome (TransINVEST Vilnius win 1–2).
The model had projected Hegelmann Litauen at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Hegelmann Litauen TransINVEST Vilnius ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann Litauen | 39.5% | 27.8% | +11.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.2% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 31.0% | 45.0% | -14.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates TransINVEST Vilnius's win probability at 45.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was TransINVEST Vilnius win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about TransINVEST Vilnius than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Hegelmann Litauen; match finished TransINVEST Vilnius
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hegelmann Litauen by 14.0 percentage points (53.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hegelmann Litauen 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · TransINVEST Vilnius 31.0%
- xG · Hegelmann Litauen 1.39 — TransINVEST Vilnius 1.21
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hegelmann Litauen 3.34 · Draw 3.41 · TransINVEST Vilnius 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Hegelmann Litauen 27.8% · Draw 27.2% · TransINVEST Vilnius 45.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hegelmann Litauen 3.34 · Draw 3.41 · TransINVEST Vilnius 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Hegelmann Litauen 27.8% · Draw 27.2% · TransINVEST Vilnius 45.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result TransINVEST Vilnius win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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A Lyga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 4 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 56 | 20 | +36 | 51 |
| 2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 45 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 44 |
| 4 | Suduva Marijampole | 28 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 50 |
| 5 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 38 |
| 6 | Banga | 28 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 41 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Panevėžys | 28 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 32 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
