Predictions / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole

Prediction Audit: Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris
Sep 09, 2026 - 15:45
5 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 35%
Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole

AI correctly predicted the Kauno Žalgiris win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kauno Žalgiris higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kauno Žalgiris -5.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kauno Žalgiris 40.4% 45.6% -5.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 27.6% +1.9 pp Aligned
Suduva Marijampole 30.1% 26.8% +3.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Kauno Žalgiris's win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kauno Žalgiris win 5–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kauno Žalgiris. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kauno Žalgiris higher (45.6% vs model 40.4%, 5.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kauno Žalgiris win 5–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kauno Žalgiris 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Suduva Marijampole 30.1%
    • xG · Kauno Žalgiris 1.41 — Suduva Marijampole 1.19
  2. Sep 09, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kauno Žalgiris 2.03 · Draw 3.36 · Suduva Marijampole 3.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Kauno Žalgiris 45.6% · Draw 27.6% · Suduva Marijampole 26.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 09, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kauno Žalgiris 2.03 · Draw 3.36 · Suduva Marijampole 3.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Kauno Žalgiris 45.6% · Draw 27.6% · Suduva Marijampole 26.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kauno Žalgiris win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456467

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kauno Žalgiris win · Kauno Žalgiris 5–1 Suduva Marijampole
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: A Lyga
  • Fixture: Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Kauno Žalgiris 1.41 — Suduva Marijampole 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0