Predictions / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen

Prediction Audit: Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole
Jul 20, 2026 - 15:45
5 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 33%
Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen

The model missed the final outcome (Suduva Marijampole win 5–1).

The model had projected Hegelmann Litauen at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hegelmann Litauen Suduva Marijampole ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Suduva Marijampole higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Suduva Marijampole -25.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Suduva Marijampole 33.8% 59.0% -25.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.1% +4.5 pp Aligned
Hegelmann Litauen 36.6% 15.8% +20.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Suduva Marijampole's win probability at 59.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 25.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Suduva Marijampole win 5–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hegelmann Litauen; match finished Suduva Marijampole

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hegelmann Litauen by 25.3 percentage points (61.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 20, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Suduva Marijampole 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Hegelmann Litauen 36.6%
    • xG · Suduva Marijampole 1.27 — Hegelmann Litauen 1.33
  2. Jul 20, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Suduva Marijampole 1.57 · Draw 3.69 · Hegelmann Litauen 5.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Suduva Marijampole 59.0% · Draw 25.1% · Hegelmann Litauen 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 20, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Suduva Marijampole 1.57 · Draw 3.69 · Hegelmann Litauen 5.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Suduva Marijampole 59.0% · Draw 25.1% · Hegelmann Litauen 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 20, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Suduva Marijampole win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1549296

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds 2.73
CLV Pending
Final Result Suduva Marijampole win · Suduva Marijampole 5–1 Hegelmann Litauen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 36.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: A Lyga
  • Fixture: Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-20 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Suduva Marijampole 1.27 — Hegelmann Litauen 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0