Predictions / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Džiugas Telšiai vs Banga

Prediction Audit: Džiugas Telšiai vs Banga Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Džiugas Telšiai Džiugas Telšiai
Jul 19, 2026 - 15:45
1 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Banga Banga

The model missed the final outcome (Džiugas Telšiai win 1–0).

The model had projected Banga at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Banga Džiugas Telšiai ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Banga +1.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Džiugas Telšiai 33.3% 34.3% -0.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 29.8% -0.1 pp Aligned
Banga 37.1% 36.0% +1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Džiugas Telšiai win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Banga; match finished Džiugas Telšiai

Market lesson

The full-time result was Džiugas Telšiai win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:50 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Džiugas Telšiai 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Banga 37.0%
    • xG · Džiugas Telšiai 1.26 — Banga 1.34
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Džiugas Telšiai 2.71 · Draw 3.12 · Banga 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Džiugas Telšiai 34.3% · Draw 29.8% · Banga 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Džiugas Telšiai 2.71 · Draw 3.12 · Banga 2.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Džiugas Telšiai 34.3% · Draw 29.8% · Banga 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Džiugas Telšiai win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 94/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 11:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3532456

Closing Odds 2.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Džiugas Telšiai win · Džiugas Telšiai 1–0 Banga
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: A Lyga
  • Fixture: Džiugas Telšiai vs Banga
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Džiugas Telšiai 1.26 — Banga 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0