AI correctly predicted the Guarani U20 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Guarani U20 Guarani U20 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarani U20 | 35.2% | 52.2% | -17.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Ituano U20 | 35.2% | 22.6% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Guarani U20's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Guarani U20 win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Guarani U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guarani U20 higher (52.3% vs model 35.2%, 17.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guarani U20 win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guarani U20 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Ituano U20 35.2%
- xG · Guarani U20 1.30 — Ituano U20 1.30
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guarani U20 1.51 · Draw 3.84 · Ituano U20 4.90
- Implied 1X2 · Guarani U20 58.8% · Draw 23.1% · Ituano U20 18.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guarani U20 1.72 · Draw 3.58 · Ituano U20 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Guarani U20 52.2% · Draw 25.1% · Ituano U20 22.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guarani U20 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Paulista - U20 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
