Predictions / Football / Scotland. Football League - Highland League / Wick Academy vs Fraserburgh

Prediction Audit: Wick Academy vs Fraserburgh Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wick Academy Wick Academy
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.08
3 1.52
xG Accuracy: 52%
Fraserburgh Fraserburgh

AI correctly predicted the Fraserburgh win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fraserburgh Fraserburgh ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Fraserburgh higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fraserburgh -27.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wick Academy 25.4% 11.0% +14.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.8% 15.9% +12.9 pp Model Edge
Fraserburgh 45.8% 73.1% -27.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Fraserburgh's win probability at 73.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 27.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fraserburgh win 2–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Fraserburgh attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fraserburgh higher (73.1% vs model 45.8%, 27.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fraserburgh win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wick Academy 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · Fraserburgh 45.8%
    • xG · Wick Academy 1.08 — Fraserburgh 1.52
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wick Academy 8.05 · Draw 5.56 · Fraserburgh 1.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Wick Academy 11.0% · Draw 15.9% · Fraserburgh 73.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Wick Academy 8.05 · Draw 5.56 · Fraserburgh 1.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Wick Academy 11.0% · Draw 15.9% · Fraserburgh 73.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fraserburgh win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8680268

Closing Odds 1.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fraserburgh win · Wick Academy 2–3 Fraserburgh
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Football League - Highland League
  • Fixture: Wick Academy vs Fraserburgh
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · Away 45.8%
  • xG (showing): Wick Academy 1.08 — Fraserburgh 1.52 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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