Predictions / Football / Scotland. Football League - Highland League / Wick Academy vs Strathspey Thistle

Prediction Audit: Wick Academy vs Strathspey Thistle Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wick Academy Wick Academy
Aug 01, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 56%
Strathspey Thistle Strathspey Thistle

The model missed the final outcome (Strathspey Thistle win 0–2).

The model had projected Wick Academy at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wick Academy Strathspey Thistle ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wick Academy 37.5% 40.0% -2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.0% +3.6 pp Aligned
Strathspey Thistle 32.9% 34.0% -1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Strathspey Thistle win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Wick Academy; match finished Strathspey Thistle

Market lesson

The full-time result was Strathspey Thistle win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wick Academy 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Strathspey Thistle 32.9%
    • xG · Wick Academy 1.35 — Strathspey Thistle 1.25
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wick Academy 2.26 · Draw 3.48 · Strathspey Thistle 2.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Wick Academy 40.0% · Draw 26.0% · Strathspey Thistle 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Wick Academy 2.26 · Draw 3.48 · Strathspey Thistle 2.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Wick Academy 40.0% · Draw 26.0% · Strathspey Thistle 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Strathspey Thistle win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 81/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1809651

Closing Odds 3.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Strathspey Thistle win · Wick Academy 0–2 Strathspey Thistle
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Football League - Highland League
  • Fixture: Wick Academy vs Strathspey Thistle
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Wick Academy 1.35 — Strathspey Thistle 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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