The model missed the final outcome (Vasco DA Gama win 1–3).
The model had projected Fluminense at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fluminense Vasco DA Gama ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 39.9% | 42.8% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 32.3% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Vasco DA Gama | 30.6% | 24.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Vasco DA Gama's win probability at 30.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Vasco DA Gama win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Vasco DA Gama.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Fluminense; match finished Vasco DA Gama
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fluminense by 5.7 percentage points (34.2% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 06, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fluminense 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Vasco DA Gama 30.6%
- xG · Fluminense 1.40 — Vasco DA Gama 1.20
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fluminense 2.25 · Draw 2.98 · Vasco DA Gama 3.86
- Implied 1X2 · Fluminense 42.8% · Draw 32.3% · Vasco DA Gama 24.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 06, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fluminense 2.25 · Draw 2.98 · Vasco DA Gama 3.86
- Implied 1X2 · Fluminense 42.8% · Draw 32.3% · Vasco DA Gama 24.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 06, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vasco DA Gama win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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