Predictions / Football / Brazil. Copa Do Brasil / Mirassol vs Gremio

Prediction Audit: Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mirassol Mirassol
Aug 02, 2026 - 21:00
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Gremio Gremio

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Gremio at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gremio Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mirassol higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mirassol -13.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mirassol 34.7% 47.9% -13.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.7% +1.0 pp Aligned
Gremio 35.6% 23.4% +12.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Mirassol's win probability at 47.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Mirassol than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Gremio; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gremio by 13.2 percentage points (48.8% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mirassol 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Gremio 35.6%
    • xG · Mirassol 1.29 — Gremio 1.31
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mirassol 2.01 · Draw 3.36 · Gremio 4.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Mirassol 47.9% · Draw 28.7% · Gremio 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mirassol 2.01 · Draw 3.36 · Gremio 4.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Mirassol 47.9% · Draw 28.7% · Gremio 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1956539

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mirassol 1–1 Gremio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Copa Do Brasil
  • Fixture: Mirassol vs Gremio
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Mirassol 1.29 — Gremio 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Copa Do Brasil Matches Track Mirassol Next Match Prediction Track Gremio Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Mirassol & Gremio!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions