Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Dunajska Streda vs Bolton

Prediction Audit: Dunajska Streda vs Bolton Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dunajska Streda Dunajska Streda
Jul 17, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 74%
Bolton Bolton

The model missed the final outcome (Dunajska Streda win 2–1).

The model had projected Bolton at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bolton Wanderers Dunajska Streda ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dunajska Streda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dunajska Streda -10.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dunajska Streda 33.3% 43.9% -10.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.3% +4.3 pp Aligned
Bolton 37.1% 30.8% +6.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Dunajska Streda's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dunajska Streda win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dunajska Streda than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Bolton Wanderers; match finished Dunajska Streda

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bolton by 10.6 percentage points (47.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dunajska Streda 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Bolton 37.0%
    • xG · Dunajska Streda 1.26 — Bolton 1.34
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dunajska Streda 2.00 · Draw 3.38 · Bolton 2.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Dunajska Streda 43.4% · Draw 25.7% · Bolton 30.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dunajska Streda 2.05 · Draw 3.55 · Bolton 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Dunajska Streda 43.9% · Draw 25.3% · Bolton 30.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dunajska Streda win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1485463

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dunajska Streda win · Dunajska Streda 2–1 Bolton
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: DAC Dunajská Streda vs Bolton Wanderers
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): DAC Dunajská Streda 1.26 — Bolton Wanderers 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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